A Grim Statistical History
Teams that take a 3-0 lead in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final have historically been all but guaranteed to win the series. Out of 28 occurrences, 27 teams have clinched the championship, with the sole exception being the Toronto Maple Leafs' remarkable comeback against the Detroit Red Wings in 1942. Of those 28 series, 20 concluded in sweeps.
The Florida Panthers are attempting to sweep the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since the Red Wings eliminated the Washington Capitals in four games in 1998. Even if the Edmonton Oilers manage to force a Game 5 by winning Game 4, history shows that 25 of those 28 series have ended within five games. Despite these daunting odds, the Oilers remain hopeful.
Oilers’ Current Struggles
The Oilers have been unsuccessful against the Panthers, going 0-5-0 this season. In Game 3, Edmonton showed a spark in the third period, with Philip Broberg and Ryan McLeod scoring greasy goals to cut Florida’s lead to 4-3. However, the critical takeaway was their 4-1 deficit entering the final frame—a precarious situation on home ice in a must-win game against a team boasting a plus-15 goal differential in the last period during the postseason.
The Oilers' downfall came during a disastrous 6:19 stretch in the second period when Florida scored three times. Edmonton had just equalized at 1-1 with a Warren Foegele breakaway goal. Yet, a turnover by Stuart Skinner allowed Eetu Luostarinen to set up Vladimir Tarasenko for a 2-1 lead, deflating the crowd at 9:12. A solid forechecking effort by Matthew Tkachuk then forced another turnover, this time by Darnell Nurse, which Sam Bennett capitalized on to make it 3-1 at 13:57. Aleksander Barkov capped the scoring for Florida at 15:31, converting a 2-on-1 chance that started deep in the Oilers’ attacking zone.
The Stars Fail to Shine
The Oilers' mistakes are numerous, but their star players haven't been the difference-makers they need to be. Goals have come from Foegele, Broberg, McLeod, and Mattias Ekholm. However, the team’s top five playoff scorers—Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and defenseman Evan Bouchard—have not found the back of the net.
This quintet also anchors Edmonton’s power play, which has been ineffective against the Panthers' penalty kill, a perfect 10-for-10 in the series. The Oilers’ power play entered the series operating at over 37%, the best mark in the postseason. McDavid has recorded assists on three of Edmonton’s four goals in the series and is on pace to become just the second player since 1967-68 to earn a point on at least half of his team’s goals in the postseason, joining Wayne Gretzky, who achieved the feat with the Oilers in 1988. Nevertheless, the other key contributors have yet to score in the Stanley Cup Final.
Taking Responsibility
“Yeah, it’s very frustrating, of course. I pride myself on being good in the playoffs and playing well and just can’t seem to get anything going. So yeah, I obviously have to look in the mirror and try to be better,” Draisaitl admitted. “We shot ourselves in the foot a little bit today. Made some individual and collective mistakes that they immediately took advantage of.”
Stuart Skinner echoed these sentiments, saying, “It is disappointing being down 3-0. We’ve got to let that reality sink in. I’m not too sure what the stats are on coming back in it, but if anyone can do it, it’s the Oil.”
Coach Kris Knoblauch remains optimistic: “I think we’ve shown that we can beat this team. I think there’s a lot of belief in that. It’s not like we’re getting outplayed and we’re just [saying], ‘That team’s better than us.’ We can string together a lot of wins. We’ve shown it. I don’t think there’s any doubt in our room. There’s frustration that we’re down, but there’s a difference between frustration and quitting. There’s absolutely no quit. There’s a belief that we can do this, so we just need to keep pushing.”
“After they got that second one, they just kind of got on a roll. We let them take that momentum and stride with it. They got two more quick ones. Just kind of silly mistakes that don’t need to happen,” Skinner observed.
Draisaitl emphasized the need for a narrow focus: “We’re a good offensive team. They’re doing a good job, but we’re still getting our looks. It’s just when you’re chasing the game for a big chunk of the night, it’s hard to come back. It’s a steep hill right now, obviously. No choice but to take it one game at a time. Try and get one win in Game 4 and go from there.”
With their backs against the wall, the Oilers must find a way to generate offense and tighten up defensively if they hope to defy history and keep their Stanley Cup aspirations alive.