The Race for the 2025 NFL Draft No. 1 Pick Heats Up
As the 2024 NFL season nears its climax, a fierce competition is brewing at the bottom of the league standings. The prize? The coveted No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. With the football world watching closely, two teams—the New York Giants and the Las Vegas Raiders—are neck and neck, each holding a disappointing 2-12 record.
Battle at the Bottom
The New York Giants find themselves in familiar territory, having historically held the top draft pick twice before, selecting Kyle Rote in 1951 and Tucker Frederickson in 1965. Currently, the Giants are suffering through a nine-game losing streak, a testament to the chaotic season they’ve endured. Their remaining games are set against formidable opponents: the Atlanta Falcons, Philadelphia Eagles, and Indianapolis Colts. With these matches left to play, the Giants have a significant 38.6% chance, as per simulation models, of landing the No. 1 draft pick. These simulations also optimistically project the Giants could muster one more win before the season closes.
Meanwhile, the Raiders, who have only held the first draft pick once since 1970—selecting JaMarcus Russell in 2007—are weathering their own storm. Their ten-game losing spell speaks volumes about their struggles this season. Despite starting the season with a promising 2-2 record, the Raiders have stumbled dramatically. Their upcoming clashes include tough games against the Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, and Los Angeles Chargers. According to models, the Raiders hold a 20.31% chance of securing the top draft spot, with forecasts suggesting they, too, could finish the season with three wins.
The Quarterback Conundrum
Both franchises have been grappling with quarterback instability, a key factor contributing to their dismal records. The Giants might see Tim Boyle taking the reins due to injuries that have sidelined quarterbacks Tommy DeVito and Drew Lock. On the Raiders' side, Desmond Ridder may continue leading the charge. There's uncertainty around Aidan O’Connell, who could be sidelined with a knee injury, further compounding the team’s operational difficulties.
For these teams, the 2025 NFL Draft represents more than just selecting a fresh talent; it’s about landing a franchise quarterback who can change their fortunes. The spotlight is on promising prospects like Shedeur Sanders from Colorado Buffaloes and Cam Ward from Miami (FL) Hurricanes, who are turning heads as potential game-changers for any struggling franchise.
Other Contenders in the Mix
Though the Giants and Raiders are frontrunners in this unfortunate race, they aren't alone. Five other teams are clinging to hopes of capturing the top draft position. The New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Tennessee Titans all sit at 3-11 records. Each of these teams has faced its own set of challenges this year.
Focusing on the Browns, they are slated to battle the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens in away games, concluding with a home showdown against the Miami Dolphins. Their strategic decision to start Dorian Thompson-Robinson against Cincinnati, benching Jameis Winston, underscores their focus on the future, rather than immediate gains. The Browns currently have a slender 13.32% chance, according to simulation models, of clinching the No. 1 overall pick.
The Final Stretch
As the season hurtles towards its tumultuous end, the stakes for these struggling franchises are at an all-time high. Securing the first overall pick means not just a chance at redemption but potentially setting the foundation for a brighter, fortified future. Yet, who among these teams will have the fortune—some might say misfortune—of selecting first come draft day remains the gripping question. Until the final whistle blows, NFL fans will be keeping a close watch on who claims the title of the league’s bottom dweller in this dramatic race to the bottom.