With the NBA Rookie of the Year award historically favoring the most productive rookie scorer, it's no surprise that half of the last 10 winners have been at the top of the scoring charts among rookies. Interestingly, half of the past 16 recipients have been No. 1 overall picks, underlining the expectation placed on the highest draft choices. However, it's rare for winners to come from outside the top five picks, with notable exceptions being Damian Lillard and Malcolm Brogdon.
Since 2003, only four big men have captured the Rookie of the Year award: Emeka Okafor, Blake Griffin, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Victor Wembanyama. This statistic indicates a general bias towards guards and forwards, who tend to dominate the scoring statistics. This year’s (2024) draft class, regarded as one of the least promising in NBA history, complicates predictions further. The top two picks are seen as projects who don't play the guard position, which traditionally fare better in the Rookie of the Year race.
Challenges for the Top Guards
Reed Sheppard, the highest-picked guard from the 2024 draft class, faces an uphill battle, particularly with fierce competition in the Houston backcourt. "They badly need his shooting," analysts note, but how he integrates into the team will be crucial. Meanwhile, Stephon Castle, whose shooting woes were evident with a 26.7% success rate on 3-pointers at UConn, might find it challenging to make a significant impact this season.
Other prospects have their own hurdles. Ron Holland comes to mind, having posted a 23.9% 3-point shooting percentage in the G-League, while Alex Sarr’s startlingly low 19.1% field goal percentage at the Summer League raises concerns about his readiness.
Frontcourt Obstacles
In the frontcourt, rookies like Zach Edey have somewhat clearer paths. Edey is relatively certain to start for Memphis and is expected to model his game on Jonas Valanciunas. However, the likes of Donovan Clingan face a tough battle for minutes behind Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams III in Portland's rotation.
Rookies such as Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels will compete with Zaccharie Risacher for forward spots on Trae Young's team. Meanwhile, Isaiah Collier is blocked by established players like Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson, creating another tough competitive environment.
Backcourt Barriers
In terms of backcourt positions, Dalton Knecht’s chances are limited by the presence of Austin Reaves and D'Angelo Russell on the Lakers roster. This logjam of talent could hinder Knecht’s development and opportunities for significant playing time.
Brandin Podziemski and Jaime Jaquez Jr. received some attention outside of the lottery last season but weren’t serious contenders for the top rookie honor. Their experiences serve as cautionary tales for this year’s rookies trying to make a mark despite challenging circumstances.
Outlook for Draft Projects
In Washington, hopes for Kyshawn George are tempered by the team's apparent lack of playmakers. As one source bluntly put it, "Playing for Washington kills Sarr’s candidacy because he has nobody to set him up." Such circumstances could spell trouble for players who rely heavily on being put in advantageous positions to showcase their skills.
Although the deck seems stacked against many of this year’s rookies, the nature of professional sports always allows for surprises. Performances can shift expectations rapidly, and even those considered long shots can rise to prominence with standout performances. Nonetheless, the uphill battles are apparent for many new entrants into the league this year.